This unconscious
ability
or trait to
place the ball, not so
much in a given section, but a given distance from the last hit is
called dealer signing or a dealer
roulette signature.
Experts have lined
up on
either side
of the dealer roulette signatures
issue -- some yea, some nay. Essentially, it boils down to a matter of
belief.
Some experts believe that some dealers unconsciously do this; other
believe there is no consistency to the distance that the ball travels
from one
spin to the next and, with the changing rotor spin over time, it would
be
impossible to achieve consistency anyway.
However, roulette
signatures is an
interesting concept. Of
course, if one could follow a thousand dealers and record their spins
over
thousands of decisions, it might be possible to determine once and for
all
whether the signature idea is a myth or a reality.
To this
date, we know of no such extensive study as this.
Since we are
looking for
an
unconscious ability that these
dealers might have, we wouldn’t want them to know that we are studying
them
because that would affect their spins.
Once dealers realized
that we were
looking at them specifically, they would become highly conscious of
what they
were doing. If any roulette signature existed with such a
dealer, their
awareness of their spinning technique would very quickly erase whatever
signature they had.
Now, wouldn’t a
biased-wheel watcher
also affect a dealer’s
spin?
(A biased wheel is one with a physical defect of some
type that causes
certain numbers to appear out of proportion to their probabilities.)
Yes.
Certainly, a dealer would eventually become aware of someone standing
near his
table recording thousands of spins to ascertain whether the wheel was
biased.
But, in truth, none of this would matter.
The bias is in the
wheel itself and had nothing to do with
the dealer.
The other way to
look at
it is that
dealer roulette signatures must
necessarily vary as the wheel speed slows down over time. The dealer
might spin
the ball the same way time and again but with each ball-spin, he is
playing
into a fractionally different wheel-spin.
Thus, dealer
signatures would move
slowly around the wheel as the wheel itself slowed.
When the wheel was
respun
and thus
accelerated, you would
see the same patterns as last time. You would have to then analyze the
pattern
of the signature -- a complicated task. Still, if dealer signatures
exist, certainly
they would be exploitable in long and short-term play, especially
short-term
play as the gradual slowing of the wheel’s spin would not affect the
signature
quite so drastically.
If
it doesn’t exist,
it can’t hurt us -- since it isn’t increasing the house edge against
us.
Looking at the
double-zero roulette
wheel, let us say that
on spin number one the dealer picks the ball up from the 00 pocket and
spins it
so that it winds up in the 12 pocket, five pockets away.
On
his next spin, he
picks the ball up from the 12 pocket and spins it so that it lands in
the 6
pocket, five pockets away from the 12. Finally, on this third spin, he
lands it
in the 23 pocket -- another five pockets away.
The dealer’s
signature here would be five.
Of course, three
spins of
the wheel
is not enough to
determine without a doubt about dealer roulette signatures. Since the
last
number
that hit was 23, we would now bet on 9 -- five pockets away.
In
the best of all
possible worlds, the dealer would again spin the ball in such a way
that it
would land in our 9 -- five pockets away.
In the real world,
we would never see a perfect signature.
What we would want
to
find is a
dealer who places the ball
more than a third of the time within a 12 pocket grouping an average
distance
away.
Let us say that the dealer is able to hit a 12 number
grouping, one half
of the time. In this way, we would bet those 12 numbers (12 units),
lose half
the time (-12 units), win half the time because one of our 12 numbers
hit
(which means we lose 11 units on the numbers that didn’t hit) but win
35 units
on the number that did hit for a net win of 24 units (35-11 = 24).
Therefore,
in two spins
we are ahead
12 units or six units per
spin.
Thus, if the dealer were able to hit our 12 pockets three times
every
eight spins we would average 1.5 units per spin as a win (lose 12, lose
12,
lose 12, lose 12, lose 12, win 35-11, win 35-11, win 35-11 = 12 units =
+1.5
units per spin).
The dealer signature should be readily
noticeable on a first
reading!
Roulette
Signatures leads to Roulette Methods: the Good and Ugly
OR
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