Losses -Run |
Bet |
Probability |
Odds |
1 |
$5 |
1 out of 2 |
1 to 1 |
2 |
10 |
1 out of 4 |
3 to 1 |
3 |
20 |
1 out of 8 |
7 to 1 |
4 |
40 |
1 out of 16 |
15 to 1 |
5 |
80 |
1 out of 32 |
31 to 1 |
6 |
160 |
1 out of 64 |
63 to 1 |
7 |
320 |
1 out of 128 |
127 to 1 |
8 |
640 |
1 out of 256 |
255 to 1 |
9 |
1,280 |
1 out of 512 |
511 to 1 |
Hedging Craps Systems
These craps systems theorize that by hedging this bet with that bet
they can overcome the edge on both bets and beat the game.
Craps
players will place a Pass Line bet and an Any Craps bet in order to
protect their Pass Line bet from the 2, 3 or 12 being rolled -- all
losers on the Come-Out part of the game for a right bettor. Are the
bets really protected? On the contrary, they lose more!
Here’s the
result if a $25 Pass Line bettor protects his bet by hedging it with
a $5 Any Craps. On the Come-Out roll, the 7 or 11 will win the $25 Pass
Line player $25, but he will lose $5 on the Any Craps.
How often
will he win on the Pass Line? Eight times in 36 rolls for a win of $200
minus $40 for the losses on Any Craps. So, he's up $160.
Alternatively,
if he hits the Any Craps, he wins seven times his $5 bet for a win of
$35. He’ll do this four times every 36 Come-Out rolls for a total of
$140. But he lost $25 on each of those four rolls, so his net profit
was only $40.
Still, he’s ahead of the game at this point because he
won $160 on the Come-Out 7s and 11s, and he won $40 on the Any Craps.
He’s ahead a total of $200.
What if the bets were not protected?
He would have won $200 but lost $100 when the 2, 3, and 12 rolled. He’d
have only been up $100. But by hedging, he is up $200, not $100.
If the game stopped there, it
would be great. But
craps doesn’t stop there.
Every time the shooter establishes his point
-- the numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10 -- our hedger loses his $5.
And the
shooter will establish his point 24 times. That’s a loss of $120 for
the point numbers. Our player who hedges on the Come-Out roll -- where
he has a 2-1 edge over the casino and would be up $100 after the 36
Come-Out rolls on average -- is now up only $80. That is $20 less than
he would have won had he not protected his Pass
Line bet and just let it stand alone.
So
hedging on the Do side of the board is a don’t, and you can use the
same kind of analysis for all possible hedges at craps and the result
will be the same -- you’ll actually lose more by trying to protect
otherwise good bets with otherwise bad bets.
The Any Craps is a bad
bet because it has a house edge of 11.11%, whereas the Pass Line bet
only faces a small 1.41% house edge.
In the end, a bad bet can’t
protect a good bet.
If you have been playing the wrong way all these years, switch right
now because -- better late than never!
I
discuss the best craps betting and systems in this lesson.
Craps
Systems Rated is followed by Craps Tips
OR
Return
to Learn to Play Craps Program
Gambling
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