by Frank Scoblete
Should I use Craps
Hedging is answered in Part 1 of this Learn
to
Play Craps lesson.
Spend some time at the craps
tables and you will see and
hear a host of hedges, the most common of which are that
they increase or
decrease your chances of winning or losing on the Pass Line. But
is it
really worth it?
A classic hedging consists of utilizing one bet to
offset another bet. For example, you place a $5 Pass Line bet and then
ask the
dealers to give you a one-dollar “Any Craps” -- 2, 3, 12 -- in order to
offset
the possible loss of that Pass Line bet when any of the craps numbers
appear.
Thus, there is no way to lose on the Pass Line by utilizing
such a scheme. You’ll win $40 on the 7 and 11, which will show up eight
times (on
average) in 36 rolls, but you’ll lose $8 on the Any Craps, for a net
gain of
$32.
However, when any of the craps numbers appear-- and
they’ll appear four
times for every 36 rolls on average -- you will lose $20 on the Pass
Line but
win $28 on the Any Craps (which pays off at 7 to 1). Therefore, the
hedger is
ahead of the Pass Line game at this point to the
tune of $40.
When a point number -- 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 -- is
rolled, the Pass Line bet does not win or lose. The shooter now has to
make that
point before he rolls the dreaded 7. And what of all those Any Craps
bets
you’ve been making for a buck? What happens to them?
The 24
times on average
that a point number rolls is a loser for the Any Craps bet. So, the
Pass Line
win is now reduced by $24.
Still, by the end of the betting
sequence, and in
the long run, the hedger is guaranteed a win on the Pass Line come-out
rolls of
$16. Has our hedger successfully protected his Pass Line bet from being
diminished by the craps numbers? No.
At first, advocates of hedging will be delighted to look at
the above figures and see just how “protected” their Pass Line bet is
by the
Any Craps hedge. But can advocates answer “yes” to the
following
question? “Will I win more or lose less by betting this way?” Sorry,
you’ll lose
more.
Here’s why:
If you merely played the Pass Line sans hedging, you would
have won $40 on the eight times the 7 and 11 appeared, lost $20 when
the 2, 3
and 12 appeared; yet, you would have been ahead $20 for the full
sequence in the
long run.
Contrast that with our hedger who wins only $16.
The cost for hedging
is a 20 percent reduction in our overall Pass Line come-out win in the
long
run. In this case hedging is a bad investment. So, my advice is to take
a pass on the Pass Line hedges.
Don’t Pass bettors can also get tangled up in the hedges in
numerous ways.
Here’s one advocated by some gaming writers. Place a
Don’t-Pass bet of $20 and when the point is 6 or 8, you Place bet the
same
number for $18. The thinking here is that if the 7 appears, you will
win $20 on
the Don’t Pass and lose $18 on the Place bet, giving you a $2
guaranteed
profit.
However, if the either the 6 or 8 hits, you will win $21 and
lose $20, giving you a guaranteed $1 profit. Overall, you’ll win $17
betting
this way.
The problem with this betting scheme is obvious. When a
Don’t Pass bet has made it past the come-out roll, it is the odds-on
favorite
to win as a 7 will appear more often than any single number.
Even
though the 6
or 8 will appear five times for every six appearances of the 7, the
Don’t
bettor is still favored to win one betting unit -- in this case $20
(he’ll win
six times on the 7 for $120 but lose five times on the 6 or 8 for
$100).
How much will you win on the guaranteed hedge? A total of
$17.
That’s $3 less than had you played it straight! It is also a reduction
of 15
percent in winnings. Not good.
This same hedge is also advocated for the other numbers as
well, with the same dire consequences.
Again, you bet $20 on the Don’t Pass and if the 5 or 9 is
the Point, you also Place bet that number for $15. If the 7 hits, you
win $20
on the Don’t Pass bet, but lose $15 on the Place bet -- for a
guaranteed win of
$5. When the Point rolls, you win $21 on the Place bet, but lose $20 on
the
Don’t Pass bet for a guaranteed win of $1.
So what does this all add up to? Had you simply
stuck with
your Don’t Pass bet on the 5 or 9, you would have won $120 when the 7
rolled
and lost $80 when the 5 or 9 rolled as the 7 is a six-to-four, or
three-to-two,
favorite over the 5 or 9. That’s
a net
win of $40.
By hedging, you won $30 when the 7 rolled and $4
when the 5 or 9
rolled for a net win of $34. That’s $6 less! Your winnings have again
been
reduced by 15 percent because of hedging. Bad news.
The same scenario holds for the hedging of the 4 or 10.
Again, you bet $20 on the Don’t Pass and if the point is 4 or 10, you
Place bet
that number for $15.
If a 7 hits, you will win $20 on the Don’t but lose $15 on
the Place bet, for a profit of $5.
However, if the point is rolled you win
$27 on
your Place
bet, lose $20
on your Don’t Pass bet, and wind up ahead $7 overall.
This sounds good until you take a look at what you actually
would have won had you just stuck with your Don’t Pass bet of 4 or 10.
You
would have won $60 because the 7 is a six-to-three, or two-to-one,
favorite
over the 4 or 10.
You would win six times ($120), lose three (-$60) and been
up $60. How much did you win with the guaranteed hedge?
You won $30 when the 7 rolled and $21
when
the 4 or 10 rolled, for a win of $51. That’s $9 less! Again a reduction
of 15
percent in your overall win! Just awful.
By hedging on the Don’t Pass after you have successfully
maneuvered through the toughest part of Don’t betting, the come-out
roll where
you lose eight times for every three times that you win, you have
increased
your overall losses dramatically.
Now, a clever craps player might say, “Well, if that
come-out roll is so dangerous to me because I lose on the 7 and 11, why
don’t I
just hedge my come-outs and let my numbers stand when they are up
against the
Point?”
Craps
Hedging continues with Part 2
OR
Return
to Learn
to Play Craps Program
Gambling
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